Insights

The Federal Reserve announced a major policy revision last week. The revised strategy indicates rates will stay low for a long period of time and will increase slower than in past rate cycles. The report and a subsequent speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell indicate the Fed will allow inflation t …

The S&P 500 continued to march higher, rising 0.8% last week. Excluding dividends, the index of large-cap U.S. stocks reached a new record. Some investors prefer this measure for determining when bear markets end. By almost any measure, the S&P 500 is no longer in a bear market.

U.S. economic data last week supported the view the U.S. is entering a period of slower economic growth after a sharp recovery in May and June. Mandatory and voluntary social distancing efforts limit how quickly the economy can recover when certain segments, such as restaurants, are still s …

The U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July as hiring momentum in the service sector allowed many workers to reclaim lost jobs or get new ones. The pace of hiring slowed compared to gains of 2.7 million and 4.8 million in May and June. The slowing growth reflects consumer caution as new …

U.S. GDP fell 32.9% last quarter on an annualized basis. It wasn’t as bad as it looks. Annualizing the data magnifies the decline by assuming the trend will continue for a full year. A better assessment can be gained by comparing GDP to the same quarter last year.

The increased number of COVID-19 cases appears to be pressuring employment in the U.S. Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims rose from 1.3 million to 1.4 million. (See Figure 1.) After slowly declining for weeks, the uptick shows signs of a weakening job market.

Evidence for a sharp, although possibly brief, economic recovery continues to mount. As shown in Figure 1, retail sales rebounded another 7.5% in June and are now 1.1% higher than a year ago. Signs of economic reopening showed up throughout the data released last week.

Stocks continued to climb in the face of an increasing number of new COVID-19 cases and evidence the surge is stifling the economy’s ability to recover. Initial unemployment claims dipped to 1.3 million, but they have remained above 1 million for 16 consecutive weeks.

The S&P 500 wrapped up its best quarter since 1998, gaining 20.5%, amid a strong employment report and continued concerns as the United States and the world posted a record number of coronavirus cases.

The daily total for new virus cases topped 40,000 as a resurgence in the South and Southwest pushed new cases to an all-time-record high. Some states are reporting record hospitalizations and pausing or reversing reopenings. Initial unemployment claims, as shown in Figure 1, remain close to …